The news coverage of anything that happens in Iran is unbelievable here. No surprise, since Israel is fearing a nuclear Iran which would be the first serious danger for the very existence of Israel since the 1967 war. After that date, Israel (supposedly) developed nuclear weapons and all wars, also the one from 1973,had been limited but not targeted at the complete destruction of the country (promised, I will write about the very interesting history of Israel sometime when I am back in Berlin!). But when I read Mahmoud Ahmadinedschad’s speeches, think about Iran’s history since the Islamic revolution and the history of Jewish people, I clearly understand that a nuclear Iran is a unbearable risk! I actually think that many parts of the Iranian government would use it against Israel. Nevertheless even if not, a Islamic and strongly anti-semitic state would have a much stronger position in the region, on one level with Israel, and would cause a regional arms race, since the Sunni regimes in Saudi-Arabia, Egypt and most Arab states also fear a nuclear (Shi’ite) Iran.
A lot of experts say that Iran will acquire the bomb in 2009. Just one more year. Thus I clearly understand that Israel is considering a strike against Iran. Israels army, especially its airforce, is superb. The army is an integral and important part of the society, influencing everything, even making possible economic growth. Every woman has to serve 2 years,every man 3years(Apart from Arabs and Ultraothodox Jews). Without this, the state wouldnt exist, its military supremacy in the region is essential.
Israel could handle the extraordinary challenge of stopping Iran. But this would mean a major war in the region, for Iran could stop 40% of the world’s oil supply in the strait of Hormuz, since Iran has long-range missiles, since Iran has allies at Israel’s borders, the Hamas in the Gazastrip, the Hizbollah in Lebanon. So would Israel take that risk? Finally yes, I think. But they are waiting on US support, which would make things easier, for example because of fly-over rights over Iraq.
Lots of people expected a strike for the time between US elections (because Israel would never influence the elections) and Obama’s step into office (because Bush is seen much more friendly to Israel, also Obama showed support with the choices of Hillary Clinton and Rahn Emanuel). Nothing happened yet, I dont think anything will happen till January. But I am sure something will happen in the next one and a half year. Israel will protect itself. Hopefully with US support. Probably Europe will reduce itself to a passiv role again…
more: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1227702421218&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
sorry for mistakes, im kind of drunk and tired, just felt like writing about that…
leila tov/good night
1 Comment
December 30, 2008 at 1:43 am
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